Market detail
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
DisputedEscalated → DVMResolved
Risk factor breakdown
transparent weighted sum → 55/100Dispute & reset timeline
8 on-chain eventsunverified — derived from on-chain event timestamps; lifecycle ordering not independently audited.
- ●InitializedJan 27, 2026, 00:55
- ◆ProposedJan 30, 2026, 03:01
- ✕Disputed (round 1)Jan 30, 2026, 04:40
- ↺Reset (round 1)Jan 30, 2026, 04:40
- ↗Escalated to mainnet DVM (round 1)Jan 30, 2026, 04:40escalated to mainnet DVM ↗
- ◆Proposed (round 1)Jan 30, 2026, 16:05
- ✓ResolvedJan 30, 2026, 18:05
- ✓Settled (round 1)Feb 2, 2026, 01:04
Resolution status
State
Resolved
Reset rounds
1
Pause count
0
Resolution lag
3d 17h
On-chain provenance
auditablequestionId
Polymarket slug/us-strike-on-somalia-by-january-31-563
Adapter address
Risk score55/100 · Elevated
Off-chain clarifications0
Resolution criteria
ancillaryText · rendered from on-chain ancillaryDataq: title: U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?, description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Somalia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting and government sources.
This market may remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place. market_id: 1274190 res_data: p1: 0, p2: 1, p3: 0.5. Where p1 corresponds to No, p2 to Yes, p3 to unknown/50-50. Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7 as described by https://polygonscan.com/tx/0xa14f01b115c4913624fc3f508f960f4dea252758e73c28f5f07f8e19d7bca066 should be considered.,initializer:91430cad2d3975766499717fa0d66a78d814e5c5